German government bound to continue coalition while conservatives brace for its collapse

The German government is concerned about a defeat in the European Parliament elections while facing a decline in the polls and internal discord as the conservatives actively prepare for the coalition’s collapse.

Currently, the government comprises Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, known as the ‘traffic light coalition’.

But earlier this week, a document by the CDU and Bavarian CSU was leaked that outlined a plan to be rolled out if one of the three parties ended their participation in the government.

First reported by t-online, the plan would see the conservatives supporting an emergency government with Scholz in return for the ministries the Greens and the liberal FDP currently hold.

However, while the CDU/CSU is preparing for the worst-case scenario, they still assume that the coalition would continue, as a snap election would likely further exacerbate the declining ratings of the parties in power.

“A new federal election would be like hara-kiri for all three parties,” MP Alexander Throm, the CDU/CSU’s spokesperson on domestic policy, told Euractiv.

Constantin Wurthmann, a political science professor at Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, echoed this sentiment.

“The big problem with the whole situation, however, is that nobody is really seriously interested in going into a new election at the moment,” he told Euractiv.

The future of the government will, however, also depend on their ability to sell future successes better, as the other option would be to “remain in the role of victims and ultimately try to abandon the sinking ship,” he added.

Troubled waters

While infighting within the government has become the new normal, the three partners are also hitting rock bottom in the polls and are currently projected to receive 32% combined – only 2% ahead of the conservative CDU/CSU, according to the poll aggregator Europe Elects.

In recent weeks, the dissent within the government reached new heights, with one of the liberal senior politicians breaking ranks with her government in a crucial vote in the Bundestag on delivering Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The liberal FDP was already pondering jumping ship earlier this year when their members were asked to vote on the matter. The remain camp only prevailed by a slim margin, with around 52%.

EU election as a litmus test

The business-friendly FDP is still the party that is feeling the pressure from the polls the most. They are currently projected only to win 4.5% of the votes – half a percentage point off the 5% threshold required to get into the Bundestag.

Thus, a repeat of the party’s largest editorial defeat of 2013, when it failed to reach the required threshold to enter the Bundestag, can not be ruled out.

While there is no threshold to enter the European Parliament, the upcoming European election is the only other nationwide poll next to the Bundestag election, which makes it a litmus test for the government and, more specifically, the FDP.

“Although one cannot simply use the EU elections to conclude the Bundestag elections, it is still not without importance for the FDP to achieve over 5%,” the expert Wurthmann remarked.

“The mark is symbolic concerning the Bundestag elections,” he added.

The FDP is well aware of the importance of this and has placed its bets on Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, one of its most senior and well-known MPs, to lead them into the EU election.

While the liberals are eager to avoid a debacle at the EU election, it is still unlikely that they will leave the government if they fail to reach the 5%, as dropout would likely result in them being “penalised in the next election,” Wurthmann stated.

The CDU/CSU opposition appears to agree with this assessment. “For the FDP, an exit now would be almost suicide for fear of death,” the MP Throm said.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]