Lithuania’s incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda is standing for re-election on 12 May, and the latest poll puts him well ahead of potential challengers with 30% support, while the runner-up, Christian Democrat Ignas Vegele, is polling at 16%.
Several other polls for the first round of the election, to be held on 12 May, also give Nausėda a double-digit lead over his opponents.
However, 30% of the vote would not be enough for Nausėda to win in the first round.
Nausėda would need 50% of the votes to win the election’s first round. As he is currently polling at 30%, Lithuania will likely go to the polls for a second round.
While the incumbent president holds a substantial lead over his challengers, the gap between second and third place is close, making it unclear who would face Nausėda in the likely second round, with current Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė in third place at 14%, according to the Spinter tyrimai poll published on 15 February.
Steady support to Ukraine, Belarus opposition
Nausėda, an economist by profession with experience in the Lithuanian central bank, was elected president of the country as an independent candidate in July 2019 and has since been representing his country in the European Council as president with powers over foreign affairs.
A political newcomer, he quickly made a name for himself during the 2020 protests in Belarus against the authoritarian rule of Alexander Lukashenko, opening Lithuania’s borders with Belarus on humanitarian grounds and offering refuge to exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Nausėda became a vocal advocate for supporting Ukraine with military, humanitarian and economic aid, punishing Putin’s regime for the invasion and establishing an international tribunal to investigate the crime of aggression.
In 2023, it was revealed that Nausėda had previously been a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and had failed to disclose this when he applied to run for the presidency in 2019. Despite the scandal, he continues to enjoy widespread support in the country and is frequently voted Lithuania’s most popular politician in opinion polls.
Runner-ups
Coming in second is lawyer and Christian Democrat politician Ignas Vegele, formerly a member of the predecessor of the centre-right TS LKD party and currently an independent politician.
He is known for his strong opposition to Lithuania’s COVID-19 policy and his Catholic background. His campaign focuses on distrust of mainstream parties and rhetoric against LGBTQ+ rights and the Istanbul Convention, as Lithuania is the only Baltic country not to have ratified the convention.
Simonyte, in third place, is Lithuania’s incumbent prime minister, having taken office after the signing of the 2020 coalition agreement between the centre-right TS LKD (EPP), the liberals (LRLS) and the liberal LP.
Before becoming prime minister, she served as finance minister from 2009 to 2012 and was deputy chair of the board of the Bank of Lithuania from 2013 to 2016.
In 2019, she ran for president with the support of the centre-right TS LKD, winning the first round with 32% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Nausėda, who eventually won the second round with 66%.
The poll shows the leader of the centre-left LSDP (S&D), Vilija Blinkeviciute, hypothetically winning 11% of the vote, in fourth place. However, for the first time this century, her party decided not to nominate a candidate and supported incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda.
(Gert Armand Valgerist | Europe Elects and Euractiv.com – Edited by Max Griera, Daniel Eck)
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Source: euractiv.com
