The Brief – Next EU Commission should expect rough waters

The outgoing EU executive has had mixed results in its drive to become a ‘geopolitical Commission’. The next one should be prepared to find better and faster answers to an increasingly fragmented world.

With dozens of countries – representing half the world’s population – preparing to hold elections in 2024, this might very well be the mother of all election years.

No less than 76 countries are scheduled to hold elections, meaning more people will go to the ballot boxes in 2024 than in any previous year. There are many signs that show this will not be a smooth ride.

The results, in some cases, are likely to be consequential not just for the country in question and its neighbours, but also for the EU’s geopolitical choices.

Take, for one, Taiwan’s three-horse presidential election race this Saturday (13 January).

Taiwan remains the biggest source of tension between China and the US, the island’s main international backer and arms supplier. Beijing sees the incumbent DPP as a threat to its “One China” policy, even though they, like the other two parties – KMT and TPP – oppose calls for Taiwan to declare independence.

China has been relatively restrained in its dealing with Taiwan in the run-up to the election. But it remains to be seen whether it stays that way. If not, the West will be forced to react, with unforeseeable consequences.

Then comes Russia’s presidential election, now set for 17 March, where the vote for who will be the country’s next leader is a foregone conclusion. Vladimir Putin’s likely fifth term in office will also mean further state capture and continuation of Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

But Kyiv has an instinct for striking symbolic targets at pivotal moments: A pre-election surprise should not be excluded, as it could present an opening for those aiming to challenge Putin’s grip on power.

In India in May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP, the world’s biggest political party with more than 180 million members, is likely to win despite rising anti-incumbent sentiment.

New Delhi, faced with China’s growing assertiveness, has been turning into a strategic actor in Southeast Asia and is expected to be key to shaping the future power balance in the region.

After fiery right-wing populist Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidency, Brazil will reveal in its October municipal elections whether the left-wing Workers’ Party of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva can make gains at the expense of the right-leaning Liberal Party, which dominates Congress and is backed by Lula’s right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.

And then the United States will elect its next president in November, as well as the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. According to the current polls, incumbent US President Joe Biden is likely to face Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, in a repeat of 2020

For Europe, that means it’s time to think more seriously about Trump-proofing.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has signalled he is likely to call elections sometime in 2024 rather than wait until 2025 when a new ballot must be constitutionally held.

And then add Ukraine as a wild card.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been weighing the pros and cons of calling a presidential vote, though there are major concerns over how to organise a free and fair vote while waging a war with Russia, which currently controls nearly a fifth of the country.

In short: A few storms are brewing that Europeans will have to face, along with looming European elections in their own yard.

Consequently, the next European Commission team will more than before face the question of how more ‘geopolitical’ it will need to be.

So far, the current term under the heading ‘A stronger Europe in the world’ has been a testing ground. But add Putin, Trump, an unstable Middle East, and a more fragmented geopolitical order and it’s clear the answers will need to come faster and more decisively.

The Roundup

The Advocate General of the EU Court of Justice Juliane Kokott released her opinion on the Google Shopping case on Thursday, suggesting that the EU top court confirms the European Commission’s fine of €2.4 billion.

Alain Berset, former president of the Swiss Confederation, and Indrek Saar, former Estonian culture minister and socialist party leader, are running alongside EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders for the Council of Europe secretary general post.

The EU should invest upfront into the bloc’s defence industry production capacity as a means to de-risk their investments, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton told a group of international media, including Euractiv, on Thursday.

The majority of European drivers purchasing a used car are foregoing second-hand electric vehicles (EVs) in favour of their combustion engine equivalent, car dealers suggest – a development set to undermine the EU goal of cutting road transport emissions.

EU lawmakers agreed on Thursday on their position for the first EU-wide Disability Card that aims to guarantee a minimum standard of support for persons with disabilities across Europe.

Contrary to usual practice, the EU Court of Justice overturned the advice of its Advocate General, whose legal reasoning had backed NGOs calling for restricting the flexibility for ministers in the EU’s annual regulation on fishing quotas.

The director of French farming union FNSEA backed the ongoing farmer protests across the border in Germany, adding that while the root causes of the protests are the same, the particulars of the disputes differ across the countries’ borders.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 61% share of renewable electricity in Europe by 2028, partly due to an unprecedented surge of previously unforeseen solar panel installations.

According to EU figures released this week, the European Commission has approved more than €8 billion in French state aid to decarbonise industry and develop renewable energies in just one month.

Despite last year’s regulation for reduced prices on domestically produced medications or those using Polish components, Polish patients are still waiting as the Ministry of Health delays publishing the drug list, hindering the implementation of the regulation.

Don’t forget to read our EU Politics Decoded, about electoral rhetoric and reality of migration.

Finally, check out our Beyond the Byline weekly podcast: Starting gun in the race for EU’s top jobs.